Mavs hope to rebound with Jazz in town

Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celebrations don't seem to be agreeing with the Dallas Mavericks and the reigning NBA champs are probably glad they can put the ceremonies in the rearview mirror as they get ready to host the Utah Jazz.

The Mavs finally got their rings on Wednesday and followed that with a 105-90 setback to Minnesota. Dirk Nowitzki participated in the ceremony but not the loss, missing his third straight game with a sore knee. Jason Terry had a team-high 17 points and Shawn Marion chipped in 15, as the Mavericks' seven- game home win streak came to an end.

Dallas also failed to extend a 15-game franchise record in which it held its opponent to under 100 points.

For the Mavs, the scene was fairly reminiscent of Christmas Day, when the team unfurled its first-ever NBA championship banner to great excitement, then suffered a season-opening shellacking at the hands of the Heat.

"I think we're all happy that we don't have any more ceremonies for our championship so we can just concentrate on basketball," said Mavs guard Jason Kidd.

Dallas, which is 7-3 in North Texas this season, will finish up a four-game homestand against San Antonio on Sunday.

When the Mavs originally sat Nowitzki his absence was pegged at four games, meaning he will sit out again tonight as he continues to rest his knee and work on his conditioning.

The Jazz, meanwhile, are coming off a tough double-overtime loss to Toronto on Wednesday. Andrea Bargnani and Linas Kleiza scored 25 points apiece in that one as the Raptors snapped a 12-game losing streak against Utah with a 111-106 win.

It was Toronto's first win in the series since December 22, 2004.

The back-breaker for the Jazz in the second overtime was Jose Calderon's three-pointer from 10 feet behind the arc to beat the shot clock, giving Toronto a six-point lead with 86 seconds left.

The Jazz played without leading scorer Al Jefferson because of an inflamed right ankle, but still had an 18-point lead in the first quarter.

"It's a tough loss for us because we know we should have won the game," said Paul Millsap, who scored 31 points. "(It fell apart) in the second quarter. Our defense was poor."

Derrick Favors started for Jefferson and scored 16 with 12 rebounds. Raja Bell and C.J. Miles both had 11 points for Utah, which finished a four-game homestand at 2-2.

Jefferson didn't practice Thursday and will be a game-time decision tonight.

The Jazz have dropped five straight to the Mavs, including a 94-91 loss in Salt Lake City on Jan. 19. Utah has also lost two straight and 14 of its last 16 trips to Big D.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.